MACON, Ga. — If you've followed tropical weather closely over the last few years, you may have noticed a trend. We seem to be getting more named storms earlier in the year.
In fact, each of the last six years have all had a preseason named tropical or subtropical storm. Because of this, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has debated bumping up the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Take a look at some of the data below broken down into decades. From 1971 to 2010, there were one to three named storms prior to June 1 every 10 years.
Then, from 2011 to 2020, there was a significant increase in preseason tropical activity. There were a whopping 10 named storms prior to June 1 from 2011 to 2020.
The reasoning behind the uptick in named storms is tricky. Are climate change and warmer oceans causing storms to form earlier in the year? Possibly, but there are other factors at play.
Satellite technology used to detect, examine, and forecast these potential tropical systems has come a long way over the last 50 years. Storms that may not have been named in the past are named in today's weather world because it is easier for meteorologists to determine that tropical systems meet the criteria to receive a name.
Hybrid tropical systems, known as subtropical storms, have been named more frequently in recent years. These systems are not purely tropical, but contain characteristics of both tropical storms and mid-latitude cyclones.
The detection and more frequent naming of these systems earlier in the year has contributed to that higher count of preseason named storms.
This year, the start of Atlantic Hurricane Season will remain on June 1. The one change that will occur this year is the National Hurricane Center will begin issuing routine tropical outlooks on May 15 at 8 a.m.
These now earlier updates that usually begin at the start of the season will provide all who read them a clear picture of what is ongoing across the Atlantic basin.
If the start of hurricane season is moved up in future years, it won't mean that something with our hurricane season has changed overnight. The change will be in response to trends that show tropical systems are forming and being named earlier in the year.
It will also help bring awareness to everyone that these systems are possible earlier in the year, and will hopefully help everyone be more prepared for an early season tropical storm.
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