MACON, Georgia — It has been almost a week since the arrival of Helene and the tropics continue to stay active. There are two named storms and an area of interest outlined by the National Hurricane Center that we'll break down.
One area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico has prompted some whiplash, considering it is close to where Helene formed last week. But right now, the chances of development continue to drop and no impacts look to occur in central Georgia.
Here's what you need to know about the tropical developments we are keeping an eye on right now:
Hurricane Kirk
Hurricane Kirk became the 11th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Monday afternoon. Kirk has major hurricane status of a high-end Category 3 storm, however, it is still extremely far from North America and the new forecast track from the NHC hints at a northward shift into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and eventually to the northeast towards Europe. We will keep an eye on the storm, but as of now Kirk looks to be a "fish storm" and not affect any land masses.
Tropical Storm Leslie
Right behind Tropical Storm Kirk, Tropical Storm Leslie has formed into our 12th named storm of the hurricane season. Leslie is expected to strengthen into a hurricane over the coming days and it will follow a similar path to Kirk. Impacts to the U.S. are still too far out to determine, so it is also a storm we will keep an eye on.
Area of interest in the Caribbean Sea
The area of most relevance and closer to home is close to where Helene formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Originally this area had a 50% chance of formation with this area over the next week, but the National Hurricane Center has since dropped the chance down to 30%. It had a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours as of two days ago, but that has since dropped back down to zero.
Some longer-range models are hinting at another track into the southeast at the end of this weekend into next week, but if this system is to get its act together and organize, it does not look near as strong as Helene did.
The other bit of good news with long-range models trends, is that the southeast will see a couple of fronts push down from the north over the course of this weekend and the beginning of next week. Right now this looks to push the tropical moisture farther down south and continues to keep any impacts from this possible tropical system out of central Georgia.
The chances of formation continue to look less impressive with this possible system, but with the sensitivity of Helene lingering, it will be something the 13WMAZ Weather Team will continue to update you on as we get a better idea over the next couple of days.
As we kick off the beginning of October, it's important to remember that the tropics are still very active. We may be past the peak in hurricane season, but strong storms forming in the month of October are not abnormal. Hurricane Michael formed in early October six years ago, and we need no reminder here in central Georgia of the beast that storm was.
Two more storms formed while we were focused on covering Helene late last week, which were Isaac and Joyce. They have since dissipated after claiming the next two names on the list. Now, Kirk and Leslie have claimed the two names following Isaac and Joyce. So, if this area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico does get its act together and organize, the next name after Leslie would be Milton.
We will continue to monitor the development of this disturbance over the next few days and provide updates as we receive them.