MACON, Ga. — Sunday 8 PM Tropics Update:
Tropical Storm Idalia formed earlier today south of the Gulf of Mexico off the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Maximum sustained wind speeds are around 45 miles per hour. Once this system reaches wind speeds of 74 mph or more, it will become Hurricane Idalia. Pressure is at 995 mb.
This system is expected to remain stationary for the next 24-36 hours, as it continues to strengthen. It will then move northward into the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane by Monday afternoon and a Category 2 hurricane by Tuesday night shortly before making landfall. Storm surge will be possible for western portions of Florida by Tuesday night. It looks to weaken once making landfall and turn back into a tropical storm. As it moves through the Carolinas, it will weaken into a remnant area of low pressure.
The extent of the impacts of this system won't become certain until early next week. However, Category 2 hurricanes can possess winds up to 110 miles per hour and will damage many well-built structures. Regardless, strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall are to be expected across most of the southeast. Storm surge will be expected along the Gulf Coast. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, and have also been extended along the west coast of Florida, from Apalachicola down to the Keys. Central Georgia could see rain from its outer rain bands as early as Tuesday morning.
The models are consistent up until Wednesday. A cold front will sweep through mid-week that will cause this storm to curve eastward. The models show the eye wall could move through southern portions of our viewing area. Although we will technically be on the western side of the storm, limiting severe weather potential.
Things could still change. It is important to remain up to date and stay weather aware.