ATLANTA — Voters in Iowa begin the presidential selection process on Monday when they hold their GOP caucuses. Then, on February 23, New Hampshire will hold its primary.
And in quick succession, other states will hold their primaries, with Georgia holding its primary on March 12.
Emory University Political Science Professor Dr. Andra Gillespie said Friday that the immediate forecast, in a nutshell, at the start of the 2024 presidential caucuses and primaries, is that, unless there is a surprise upset, “We are expecting Donald Trump to do incredibly well. And most people are projecting that Donald Trump’s going to be able to wrap up the (Republican) nomination pretty quickly.”
And if he does, and if there is a Trump-Biden re-match in the fall--along with all the other races on the ballots this year--has the precedent been set in this deeply divided nation? Will the loser of an election from now on, more often than not, launch post-election challenges and lawsuits, as Trump did after his loss in 2020?
Gillespie doubts it. Challenges are difficult, she said, and success is rare.
“It’s not unheard of for people to complain about election results, to say that the other side cheated or took advantage of rules in ways that could be perceived as unethical or shady,” she said. “Are people going to be mad? Yes, in a highly polarized environment. And I don’t see any evidence that polarization is abating at this point. I think there are going to be people who are going to be very bitter and very mad when their person doesn’t win. That doesn’t necessarily mean that we can expect that it’s going to be an insurrection after every election. I certainly hope not.”
And if Trump is the GOP nominee, will he be in a courtroom fighting criminal charges, in Atlanta or elsewhere, more than he’ll be on the campaign trail?
Possibly. But Gillespie said “I subscribe to the opinion that other people hold, that the courtroom is part of the campaign.”
She said that Trump’s trials will likely continue to generate sympathy and support for him from his supporters.
And there is always the chance that Trump might win his argument before the courts that presidents are immune from being prosecuted, and the charges against him are thrown out--freeing him to run, again, full speed ahead.
“There are really important issues that are raised by the question of presidential immunity that has implications for the separation of powers,” Gillespie said, “and have implications for the strength of the executive branch relative to the other two branches of government that I do think are foundational to understanding, and being able to predict, the stability of American democracy."
Gillespie noted that, in her view, what makes Trump such an interesting candidate is that he "has stress-tested our institutions."
"I think voters should have opinions about whether or not they want that type of person to be president of the United States, and consider what the implications are of a lot of the arguments that he has made to justify his behavior, and whether or not those actually pass legal and constitutional muster," Gillespie explained.
Still, Gillespie noted that this is an election year that voters shouldn't ignore. "Even if they're tired of politics, even if they are not enthused by the choice of who the likely Democratic and Republican nominees are. This is an important year, and I do think that this is the most important election of our lifetimes.”
