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What a 'percent chance of rain' really means

When we say there's a "30% chance of rain," what does it really mean?

MACON, Ga. — With all of the rain in the forecast and questions on social media from our viewers, we want to give you some insight on weather lingo.

When we say there's a "30% chance of rain," what does it really mean?

When we give a percent chance of rain, we as meteorologists know that it will rain at some point that day. The percent is the amount of area coverage or people that will see rain for sure.

For example, Wednesday calls for a 30% chance of rain. We are 100% confident that 30% of Central Georgia will see rain on that day.

Our confidence is high when we look at the chance of rain or precipitation one or two days out. Our confidence in the forecast is lower as we look farther in the future.

That being said, chances of rain for a specific day in the future can change day-by-day or hour-by-hour. Right now, the chance for rain on Monday is 60%, but that is likely to change as we get closer to the beginning of next week.

Confidence in our percent chance of rain can also change with the seasons. In the summertime, our confidence about the chances for rain are higher because we can expect afternoon showers and storms almost every day.

That is what we mean by percent chance of rain or precipitation.

If you want any other weather lingo to be defined, you can email the 13WMAZ Weather Team at WMAZ-WEATHER@13wmaz.com.

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